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在新兴技术产业发展初期，技术路径尚未明朗、市场前景高度不确定，早期研发活动普遍存在主体参与不足的问题。本研究关注政府如何通过产业规划构建新兴产业的初步市场条件，从而推动创新主体的早期参与。基于2014—2020年中国地级市层面的数字经济专利申请数据，本研究运用文本分析方法构建供给型与需求型规划信号指标进行实证检验。研究发现，规划信号总体上能够促进地区内专利申请数量的增长，且在产业基础薄弱的后发地区更为有效。但两类信号之间存在显著差异：供给型规划信号在效应强度与时间持续性上均表现稳健，而需求型规划信号的带动效应与持续性相对较弱，反映出政府主导构建的市场需求在替代内生市场需求方面存在结构性局限。机制分析表明，规划信号主要通过引入产业资本促进早期创新参与，但对风险资本的动员效果有限。上述发现揭示了政府通过产业规划塑造新兴市场供需条件的效度与限度，为理解新兴产业创新早期阶段的政府-市场关系提供了新的经验证据。
Abstract：During the early stages of emerging technology industries, technological trajectories remain unclear and market prospects are highly uncertain, leading to a pervasive problem of insufficient participation in early-stage R&D activities. This study examines how governments construct preliminary market conditions for emerging industries through industrial planning to incentivize early-stage innovation participation. Drawing on the digital economy patent application data from 2014-2020, this study employs text analysis methods to construct supply-side and demand-side planning signal indicators for empirical testing. The findings show that planning signals can promote regional patent application growth overall, with stronger effects in latecomer regions with weaker industrial foundations. However, significant differences exist between the two types of signals: supply-side planning signals are robust in both effect magnitude and temporal persistence, whereas demand-side planning signals exhibit weaker and more short-lived effects, reflecting structural limitations in government-constructed market demand as a substitute for endogenous market demand. Mechanism analysis reveals that planning signals primarily promote early-stage innovation participation by industrial capital, but have limited capacity to mobilize venture capital. These findings illustrate both the efficacy and the boundaries of governments' efforts to shape supply-demand conditions in emerging markets through industrial planning, offering new empirical evidence for understanding the government-market relationship during the early stages of emerging industry innovation.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.20158/j.cnki.ylggzl.2026.02.003
中图分类号:F49;D630
引用信息:
[1]宋文佳.塑造市场供需:政府产业规划如何推动新兴产业的早期创新参与?[J].岳麓公共治理,2026,5(02):24-40.DOI:10.20158/j.cnki.ylggzl.2026.02.003.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重大项目：政务数据赋能数字政府效能提升的机制与路径研究(25&ZD217)
2026-07-08
2026-07-08
2026-07-08